Who’s Number 1?
The NFL draft is tomorrow and the hype is at an all time high. I don’t get the number 1 fantasy. How many number 1 picks win their teams championships? Peyton won last year…after how many years was he in the league before winning (i.e., how many roster changes occurred after he was drafted)? Yet ESPN and every other announcer/commentator makes the number 1 pick the most important pick of the draft. I’m not convinced.
But my evidence will come from the NBA where I know the game better. Since the lottery began in 1985, how many number 1 picks won championships for the team that picked them? Two. David Robinson and Tim Duncan (both for San Antonio). How many won championships in general? Three. Shaq is the third and he won for the Lakers and Heat, not the Magic, the team who drafted him. Three out of 21. Not good odds. 7 percent (You can’t count Glen Robinson - who did win with the Spurs in 04-05 - because he didn’t play).
So who cares about number 1? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but since 1985, only two NFL number 1 picks have won championships for the teams that picked them: Aikman and Manning. I believe Keyshawn won with Tampa Bay in 2002, not the Jets who drafted him. Similar stats.
So again I ask: who cares about number 1? With such stats, number 1 picks guarantee very little. Solid picks overall over a number of years, coaching, chemistry - these are better indicators of winning than the number 1 overall. Here we have a metaphor regarding star chasing. Lots of hype. Little pay-off.
