March 12, 2006

Bracketology

Filed under: b-ball,Gators — jrice @ 8:10 pm

The hardest thing about making picks:
Upsets.

When you look at the board, it’s hard not to want to place all No 1s in the Final Four. But someone will not go. Right now, I see Memphis not going. Can Pitt beat Memphis? I guess. It looks the most likely right now. And what do I do with Florida? Do I really believe that they will make the Elite Eight, or am I just putting them there out of love? And there are picks I want to make: Iona over LSU, NC State over California, Montana over Nevada, Seton Hall over Tennessee in the second round, because the chance of upset is so strong. But I can’t make the picks. Instead, I settle for San Diego State over Indiana (my alma matta) because I think this team will not fight for Mike Davis and because a small team has to make some waves.

And I’m going to be wrong. Upsets happen. They have to happen. That’s what makes Bracketology more than going with the favorite or a luck of the draw. It’s a science! And I’m not studying enough right now.

9 Comments

  1. But bracketology is so not a science. I think inuition works better–the (bracketo)logic that you have, for example, about how hard Mike Davis’s team will play for him, is a perfectly sound piece of logic in this instance. And I’d also add that Pitt has a long history of choking. Does that mean that they’ll pull it together this year? It might, but I tend to go with a combination of history (immediate past and tradition) as well as chemistry, like your Davis point. It is however true, I lose every year.

    Comment by dhawhee — March 13, 2006 @ 8:27 am

  2. I agree…but when you look at those ESPN stats: No time at a 16 has ever beaten a 1…no 15 has won in the last four years…5 seeds often lose to 12 seeds…etc…then it gets tricky. Intuition is always what I go by..but then when Wyoming beats Gonzaga in the first round, I realize that intuition failed me. Another intuition I’m having…UWM will beat OK in the first round.

    Comment by jrice — March 13, 2006 @ 9:43 am

  3. I like that UWM intuition. They did make it to the Sweet 16 last year, after all.

    Comment by Donna — March 13, 2006 @ 12:30 pm

  4. Ah yes, I guess I was thinking about the other upsets, my favorites: the 12-5s (look out Syracuse!)

    d

    Comment by dhawhee — March 13, 2006 @ 9:21 pm

  5. Hey! Your intution was right on the mark. UWM! UWM!

    Comment by Donna — March 16, 2006 @ 4:34 pm

  6. Ha! Donna!
    I knew that. Sorry they will lose to Florida!
    But my intuition is failing in a few other places: I thought Seton Hall would come to play (they didn’t in the first half) and I thought the hype surrounding Nevada was true (it isn’t). Now I’m waiting for my intuition that Alabama can win.

    Comment by jrice — March 16, 2006 @ 5:53 pm

  7. All right, then: it’s my PhD alma mater vs. yours. Let’s just remember that the much-vaunted Florida team of 2000 almost lost in the first round to another fine Horizon league team.

    (Jeez–that was six years ago. Time. What a concept.)

    Comment by Donna — March 16, 2006 @ 9:29 pm

  8. Uh..yeah. But after BEATING Butler on Mike Miller’s final shot, Florida went on to the National Championship.
    Where they lost.
    But they went!

    Comment by jrice — March 16, 2006 @ 9:59 pm

  9. [...] Here we go again. [...]

    Pingback by Yellow Dog — March 12, 2007 @ 8:41 am

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