Bracketology 07
Here we go again.
The Dance. The time of year when we do our best to put our analytical skills to the test, to figure out who can rise above the competition, which match-ups will turn out which way, where the odds will fall. It’s a science. And I am no scientologist. Ba-dump-bump.
There is always the dangerous 5/12 match-up (the 5 often gets upset). The 8/9 match-up (is one team that much better than the other?). The tempting 3/14 match-up (you want to lean towards the easy pick, the 3, knowing that a 14 has a good shot here too). So, let’s think this through a bit, at least for the first - and most dangerous - round:
- Florida in the Midwest, Ohio State in the South. What the hell? I think there is anti-Florida feeling here. They have to get by Wisconsin, Oregon, possibly Arizona. Ohio State? Untested Memphis and Louisville. I think I know a couple of folks who like that match-up.
- Butler/Old Dominion. Tough call. I want to lean towards Butler…but this is a 5/12.
- Oral Roberts/Washington State. I don’t know if I can discount Oral Roberts here. They did beat Kansas earlier this season. The trick in bracketology is finding those precious upsets. This might be one.
- Duke/VCU. Man, I want to pick Billy D’s former assistant here. But I can’t. Duke advances. Then falls to Pitt.
- Creighton/Nevada. This might be one of the hardest picks to make for the first round. Nevada, a team I’ve been hyping, is about as non-conference tested as Memphis (who the winner of this game will face). Creighton can shoot. And the temptation is to pick the upset. But can I save face and pick against a team I thought would go to the Sweet 16?
- Look for a Vandy/Georgetown match-up later on. That will make a solid game.
- Indiana/Gonzaga. How dare I turn my back on my alma matta! Sorry, Hoosier nation. Gonzaga, despite their off court problems, can beat you. You have D.J. White. And who else?
- Holy Cross/SIU. Whew. Very tough. Holy Cross - Patriot League underdogs I warned you all about previously. SIU - had a hiccup in their conference tournament, but a solid team. I’ll probably take the Salukis (I’ve been chided already for ignoring them).
- Davidson/Maryland. Aren’t you tempted to take the undersized Davidson against the under-acheiving Terps? I am. Sweat, Gary, sweat!
- Possible unexpected run to the Sweet 16? Georgia Tech. And Xavier.
I feel like Hooiser nation got slapped a bit by the seeding this year: although Arizona and Gonzaga might be having down years, they are still perrenial powerhouses, and really tough as 8 and 10 seeds (seriously, Gonzaga a ten?)
I haven’t filled out my bracket yet, so I’m withhold further commentary…
Comment by Marc C. Santos — March 12, 2007 @ 3:21 pm
I agree that ODU/Butler is prime upset material. A No. 12 always wins, no? And I’m most uncertain with the Pac-10. They’re invisible to me. Standford is good enough to be in the tournament? Washington State has a team? Pure crapshoot. Even UCLA feels like a house of cards, but the only game I watched them play this season was at West Virginia. Figures.
Comment by Derek — March 12, 2007 @ 3:57 pm
O.k., got my ESPN bracket all filled out, ready to be spoiled day one. Here’s the games that gave me a headache.
I got Lousville making out Memphis and Ohio State. That bracket is certainly the most wide open, and I don’t trust too many freshmen deep in the tourney. They might try to call a timeout or something.
Notre Dame v. Winthrop: Both have sr leadership at guard, notre dame shoots the three better, but not that much better. In the end, I take ND since they play in the Big East.
Georgia Tech v. UNLV: Really wanted to take GT, but UNLV is full of senior guards. They don’t have a great low post presence, but neither does GT. UNLV.
Illinois v. VT: Just call it a hunch–neither of these teams drains the three, I think Illinois can grind a bit better and run a bit deeper down low. Bet the under, and take ‘nois.
Southern Illinois v. Holy Cross: I’ll bite. Southern Illinois is prone to turnovers, HC has some lights-out three shooters. Plus, I went to school in Wuh-sta.
Duke v. who cares? Could Duke lose? Sure, its a down year. Then again, the Yankees could miss the playoffs. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Marquette v. Mich State: Marquette has turnover problems and can’t shoot from outside. Give me Mich State.
Boston College v. Texas Tech: Toughest game for me to call, I like both of these teams. I’ll give to to Tech–their 3 point shooting is incredible, and they take better care of the ball. But I wouldn’t be surprised (or displeased) if Skinner and company win this one.
Comment by Marc C. Santos — March 12, 2007 @ 6:57 pm
Both my wife and I have attended Mo Valley schools, so we have some insight into the conference. Up until a year or two ago, it seemed a virtual lock to pick the Mo Valley team for the upset in the 1st round. Now the league gets some respect, but I still say it’s one of the best sleeper conferences–go with Creighton over Nevada.
But, then again, I rarely finish better than slightly above average in the pools. And sometimes I finish quite a bit worse than that.
Comment by Lance — March 12, 2007 @ 9:00 pm